Estimating Supply & Demand in PK4 Planning

As I have described earlier (here, and here), I am working on projection estimates for PK4 in MNPS. Given the limitations of a summer-only role and the many, many factors at play in the decisions, I do not know what role these estimates will ultimately play in the strategy around PK4 expansion. But I can at least feel confident that I am providing accurate and useful information around specific questions, namely: the (1) available supply and the (2) current unmet need for PK4 across the district and in each cluster, and (3) illustrate trends in each cluster’s distinct PK4 needs and assets. So! In the interest of sharing what I have learned thus far, here is a progress report of sorts.

Definitions:    I have already sought and obtained initial figures on each of these inputs, and am in the process of cleaning, re-organizing, and crunching the numbers so that I can pull them together in a meaningful way. 

1.     Demand = Number of students who applied for this year’s PK4 through MNPS, as organized by their zone of residence

2.     Need = Students who are projected to enroll in a MNPS zoned school for Kindergarten the following year (Proxy for PK4)

3.     Need Trend = Anticipated growth in Kindergarten enrollment over time, for each zoned school

4.     Public Supply, Total = PK4 slots currently available thru MNPS and Head Start, by cluster 

5.     Public Supply, EE = Public PK4 slots allocated exclusively for children receiving Exceptional Education services

6.     Private Supply = Slots currently provided by private entities, by cluster.

7.     Private "High-Quality" Supply = Slots that are provided by entities that are accredited by the National Association for the Education of Young Children (NAEYC), or that are three-star providers as determined by the voluntary Star-Quality Child Care Program (determined by the TN Department of Human Services Child Care Services office).

8.     Accessibility = Characteristic of each school zone's residents, which indicates families' reliance on public transportation vs. private vehicles (aggregated at the census tract level, using the ACS package in R - about which I have a blog post under construction).

Assumptions:  Every child who attends a MNPS elementary for kindergarten is likely to consider enrolling in a MNPS PK4 classroom if it were available in their residential cluster. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider projected Kindergarten enrollment in AY1415 as an appropriate proxy for projected PK4 need in AY1314. 

Limitations:    (1) Analysis captures anticipated trends for zoned schools, rather than trends for schools of choice or specialty schools. (2) Although it is intended to reflect the reality that some parents will always choose to keep their 4-year-old at home or choose private providers rather than enroll them in public PK4, the distinction between Need and Demand seems a little bit fussy, and ultimately may not be useful. (3) This is a preliminary working construct of "high quality" and cannot, by definition, capture all the characteristics that make up a quality ECE experience. But we must start somewhere, and so we start with NAEYC and Three-Star.

Thoughts, questions, suggestions? Did I miss something really obvious? 

Childfind: Data and the 4YO children in Nashville (Part 1)

Well, this is going to be complicated.  

As I wrote at the outset of this project, one of the policy/planning questions that needs to be addressed is how many four-year-old children live in Davidson County? Generating a smart estimate has turned out to be more complex than I anticipated initially.

In short, no wonder nobody has tackled this process before!

Turns out, isn't really the responsibility of any one particular government entity to track children in this age cohort. Or, rather, lots of entities track some of these kiddos, but nobody tracks all of them. So I need to bring the relevant data together and build the model myself.

Initially, my plan was to (a) fit kindergarten enrollment numbers, by year and by school cluster, and then (b) use that model as a proxy for the number of five-year-old children who would have been eligible for four-year-old (universal, voluntary) pre-K had it been in place in the previous year. From this figure I could determine trend lines for PK need, and predict/forecast  But as I discovered, there are some characteristics of the data itself that will necessitate adjustments to the plan.

School Geography is a Cluster...

Before you scold me for the pun implied above, you need to know that MNPS is organized into twelve geographically delineated units called "clusters" -- a zoned high school, and its feeder elementary and middle schools. You can access the (updated as needed) cluster maps on the district website, but here is how the clusters were organized in AY1314(1):

Each of the clusters can include zoned and charter schools alike. If you open it in another window, you can zoom in, etc. The colors alone should give you a sense of how these clusters are jumbled across the county.

Plan: Finding the PK4 seats in Nashville

For the planning of PK4 expansion in Metro, one of the issues we need resolved is current capacity across the county. To be sure, I haven't heard any talk about replacing the current providers of PK4/care. But at the very least, to determine how many children are not being served by anyone, we need to know how many children are currently served by providers outside the MNPS system. In short, I will approach it based on where the money comes from -- whether the service is paid for out of public funds, private funds, nonprofit services, or for-profit entities.

Here are the bones of my initial plan:

Summer research for MNPS: Early Childhood Policy!

Well, graduation has come and gone, and it's time to put my MPP to work. I'm grateful that I decided to spend so much time while at Peabody to data handling, analysis, program evaluation experience. Grateful, too, for the practicum placement and ongoing volunteer work with Martha O'Bryan Center, which has really demanded that I understand the complexities (and boundaries) of high-quality, useful evaluation and data work. But now I get to build my own projects: from nebulous start, and planning out each step, tracking down the data I need for each piece of the project... through the analysis of data, making judicious decisions about how to handle demographic trends, all the way to writing findings/recommendations and reporting out -- presumably to the superintendent, if not also to the mayor's office and the folks at PRI who are at the table.

So I'm excited to get started. It is a delight to spend this summer working on such concrete policy questions. In particular, I get to spend time and mental energy on the planning and strategy that will inform expanding access to pre-kindergarten for four-year-olds in Davidson County! On Monday morning, I spent a wonderful five minutes in the front lobby watching a four-year-old and her (very slightly) older sister run around and quiz each other about colors, and it was just fantastic to know that I get to be part of a process to serve these lil' ones.

There are already new initiatives under way for the expansion of PK4 in Nashville: the early learning centers at Ross, Bordeaux, and Casa Azafrán, as the district announced and as The Tennessean reported in February, in May, and just earlier this week. Certainly the upcoming initiatives are the main focus for  the director of early learning innovation, but my role will mostly be future-focused... as in, not primarily aimed at phase one year one but informing the strategy for smart decisions in later years and/or phases.