Estimating Supply & Demand in PK4 Planning

As I have described earlier (here, and here), I am working on projection estimates for PK4 in MNPS. Given the limitations of a summer-only role and the many, many factors at play in the decisions, I do not know what role these estimates will ultimately play in the strategy around PK4 expansion. But I can at least feel confident that I am providing accurate and useful information around specific questions, namely: the (1) available supply and the (2) current unmet need for PK4 across the district and in each cluster, and (3) illustrate trends in each cluster’s distinct PK4 needs and assets. So! In the interest of sharing what I have learned thus far, here is a progress report of sorts.

Definitions:    I have already sought and obtained initial figures on each of these inputs, and am in the process of cleaning, re-organizing, and crunching the numbers so that I can pull them together in a meaningful way. 

1.     Demand = Number of students who applied for this year’s PK4 through MNPS, as organized by their zone of residence

2.     Need = Students who are projected to enroll in a MNPS zoned school for Kindergarten the following year (Proxy for PK4)

3.     Need Trend = Anticipated growth in Kindergarten enrollment over time, for each zoned school

4.     Public Supply, Total = PK4 slots currently available thru MNPS and Head Start, by cluster 

5.     Public Supply, EE = Public PK4 slots allocated exclusively for children receiving Exceptional Education services

6.     Private Supply = Slots currently provided by private entities, by cluster.

7.     Private "High-Quality" Supply = Slots that are provided by entities that are accredited by the National Association for the Education of Young Children (NAEYC), or that are three-star providers as determined by the voluntary Star-Quality Child Care Program (determined by the TN Department of Human Services Child Care Services office).

8.     Accessibility = Characteristic of each school zone's residents, which indicates families' reliance on public transportation vs. private vehicles (aggregated at the census tract level, using the ACS package in R - about which I have a blog post under construction).

Assumptions:  Every child who attends a MNPS elementary for kindergarten is likely to consider enrolling in a MNPS PK4 classroom if it were available in their residential cluster. Therefore, it is appropriate to consider projected Kindergarten enrollment in AY1415 as an appropriate proxy for projected PK4 need in AY1314. 

Limitations:    (1) Analysis captures anticipated trends for zoned schools, rather than trends for schools of choice or specialty schools. (2) Although it is intended to reflect the reality that some parents will always choose to keep their 4-year-old at home or choose private providers rather than enroll them in public PK4, the distinction between Need and Demand seems a little bit fussy, and ultimately may not be useful. (3) This is a preliminary working construct of "high quality" and cannot, by definition, capture all the characteristics that make up a quality ECE experience. But we must start somewhere, and so we start with NAEYC and Three-Star.

Thoughts, questions, suggestions? Did I miss something really obvious? 

ACS, SABINS: Wrangling census data for school-level analysis

[Post in progress] Your nerd giggle of the day: My phone keeps auto-correcting ACS (the American Community Survey) to ACA (the Affordable Care Act). It has also been correcting TTFN (ta-ta for now!) to TANF (Temporary Aid for Needy Families, or, the federal grant that provides public assistance or "welfare"). I find this really amusing.

Continuing the project from earlier  - one step forward, two steps back, more forward.

Looking for resources on graphics for another project, I found the choropleth package.

Alas, while it DOES do zip codes, this package does not go all the way down to the block or even block group level data.

Nested Census geographies (from census.gov)

BUT! This lead me to the acs package, from Ezra Haber Glenn outta MIT. And although the documentation only discusses up thru ACS 5-year 2011, the Census API now goes up through 2012. Yay! Could have saved me a bunch of time in pulling the raw data itself.... Alas. Now to install. Walking through the tutorial (essentially) and pulling the necessary code for the county, by block or block group. [Use pretty R to make the R snippets look pretty]

% related to links to look at later - http://gadm.org/ 

Summer research for MNPS: Early Childhood Policy!

Well, graduation has come and gone, and it's time to put my MPP to work. I'm grateful that I decided to spend so much time while at Peabody to data handling, analysis, program evaluation experience. Grateful, too, for the practicum placement and ongoing volunteer work with Martha O'Bryan Center, which has really demanded that I understand the complexities (and boundaries) of high-quality, useful evaluation and data work. But now I get to build my own projects: from nebulous start, and planning out each step, tracking down the data I need for each piece of the project... through the analysis of data, making judicious decisions about how to handle demographic trends, all the way to writing findings/recommendations and reporting out -- presumably to the superintendent, if not also to the mayor's office and the folks at PRI who are at the table.

So I'm excited to get started. It is a delight to spend this summer working on such concrete policy questions. In particular, I get to spend time and mental energy on the planning and strategy that will inform expanding access to pre-kindergarten for four-year-olds in Davidson County! On Monday morning, I spent a wonderful five minutes in the front lobby watching a four-year-old and her (very slightly) older sister run around and quiz each other about colors, and it was just fantastic to know that I get to be part of a process to serve these lil' ones.

There are already new initiatives under way for the expansion of PK4 in Nashville: the early learning centers at Ross, Bordeaux, and Casa Azafrán, as the district announced and as The Tennessean reported in February, in May, and just earlier this week. Certainly the upcoming initiatives are the main focus for  the director of early learning innovation, but my role will mostly be future-focused... as in, not primarily aimed at phase one year one but informing the strategy for smart decisions in later years and/or phases.